Critical Evidence
Two pieces of evidence dominated recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports. They were instrumental in convincing the that world global warming due to humans was a scientifically indisputable fact.  One was the graph known as the “hockey stick” because it purported to show little temperature change for approximately 1000 years then a sudden rise in the 20th century.  The second was a global temperature increase of 0.6C (1F) in over 100 years, a rate claimed to be beyond any ‘natural’ increase.

The first is now fully discredited thanks primarily to the work of Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. They carried out the standard scientific test of trying to reproduce the results obtained in the original work. They showed the almost flat line temperature of the hockey stick handle was artificially contrived.

The second piece of evidence, the claim of temperature increase, continues to dominate and is presented in many places as the truth. The person primarily responsible for the number is P.D. Jones. He is currently Director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, England. In order to verify the number Warwick Hughes, an Australian climate researcher asked Jones how it was derived. He received the following reply on 21, February 2005. “We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.” Since then Jones has stonewalled every effort to obtain the information. But why is it so important? Surely, the raw data is available and all you have to do is use it to recreate the number.

Global Temperature
The first problem is the original temperature increase was actually given as 0.6C plus or minus 0.2C or a 66 percent error factor. It is a virtually meaningless number but still used to argue for warming. The raw data is retained by the originating country, which then submits modified data to central agencies such as the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).

Each year different groups calculate an annual global average including NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). There are also the data sets maintained jointly between the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit called HadCRUT3 and CRUTEM3.

When an annual average temperature is created each agency chooses different stations and modify the data for a variety of factors. The result is each produce different graphs as in Figure above. In this case results from two satellite studies are included.

So what we need to know is which stations Jones used and how he adjusted the data to achieve his result. We need to be able to carry out the standard reproducible results test applied to the hockey stick data. He continues to refuse to provide the information.

Withholding Information
In recent attempts to obtain the information the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) has become involved. As Steve McIntyre writes a bureaucrat was required to write the following in denying the information; Some of the information was provided to Professor Jones on the strict understanding by the data providers that this station data must not be publicly released and it cannot be determined which countries or stations data were given in confidence as records were not kept.

They are talking about data obtained by weather stations funded by the public. How that can be limited in its availability to anyone is impossible to understand. It is weather data so what possible strategic or national security risk can possibly be compromised? The data providers are other nations who provide it under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that require open access.

Is there some proprietary right to how Jones has adjusted the data? Possibly, but surely that is offset by the fact that scientific work must be available to testing and confirmation by other scientists. It is the promoters of human induced global warming who have championed the need for peer review. I have spoken often about the two responsibilities with climate research. First is the scientific responsibility and Jones fails that by not revealing how the results were achieved. Then there is the social responsibility when you take your scientific findings public and they become the basis of policy. Jones fails that because his claimed temperature increase remains pivotal in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) argument.

Now there is more disturbing evidence that Jones’ original data doesn’t bear examination.  One of the major adjustments that vary considerably from station to station is for the urban heat island effect (UHIE). The IPCC refers to Jones et al. (1990) for its claim that the non-climatic bias due to urbanization is less than one-tenth of the global trend. In other words they have rejected what everyone has known for a long time. More important, if urban stations dominate those used the false warming signal is enhanced. Now Jones is acknowledging the UHIE is greater than he allowed at least in China. As Warwick Hughes notes, “Urban-related warming over China is shown to be about 0.1 degree per decade, hey that equates to a degree per century. Huge.”

The Damage is Done
If the UHIE is even half of this value for the rest of the world stations chosen by Jones then his claim of a 0.6C increase virtually disappears. And so does the claim that human produced CO2 is causing warming because there is virtually no warming over the post-industrial period. We can speculate on Jones’ motive without resolution, however, we know to which half of the world’s work it belongs. It is more important to question how and why Jones has been able to deny access to information for so long. Who is to hold him to account? A world threatened with draconian and unnecessary energy and economic policies because of his silence should ask questions. We should also reject his claims and the IPCC reports based on his findings because we are unable to verify his results with standard scientific measures.  Read full story here.

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The relative electrial energy potential of various sources thanks to Bill DiPucchio. Larger version here. It clearly shows why wind and solar must be considered supplemental sources in any sane energy plan.

See Peter Lang’s analysis of the realities about wind power here and solar here.

The campaign for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (who faces a Republican primary challenge in 2010 from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison) has posted on his Web site a petition against cap-and-trade legislation:

We, the undersigned, ask that Congress abandon legislation that will immediately lead to higher taxes, higher unemployment, tremendous burdens on businesses, and higher costs of goods. We believe policies like this should not be pursued as a response to inconclusive climate change theories.

As America experiences a period of economic downturn, we cannot afford the largest tax increase in our country’s history. By some estimates, the legislation known as “Cap and Trade” will result in a shocking $6,800 yearly increase in costs for a family of 4 in just a few short years. Families will see higher utility bills, loss of jobs, businesses closing, and higher prices on American products.

Texans are certainly qualified to speak out on this issue. Texas’ energy industry fuels the nation, supplying 20 percent of the nation’s oil production, one-fourth of the nation’s natural gas production, a quarter of the nation’s refining capacity, and nearly 60 percent of the nation’s chemical manufacturing. The Texas energy industry employs nearly 375,000 Texans with $35 billion in total wages.

Here’s what else Gov. Perry is in a position to do, if he is serious about resistance to cap-and-trade:

1. Demand that during next week’s annual meeting of the Southern Governors Association, that both scientific and economic balance be represented on the panels that will address the global warming issue. With the Western Climate Initiative, the Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, the South is the last unconquered frontier for climate alarmists in pursuit of regional cap-and-trade.

Judging by SGA’s agenda, it is clear that they have the same goal with panels that have the following titles: “Climate Change, Energy and National Security” (speakers are former Virginia Sen. John Warner and Maj. Gen. Richard L. Engel, director of climate change and state stability program in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence), “Evaluating State-based Climate and Energy Policies” (speakers are Tom Peterson, president, and Adam Rose, economist, for the alarmist/activist Center for Climate Strategies, “Developing a Smart Electricity Grid” (a bunch of speakers with economic interests in “greening up” the power delivery system and getting government subsidies to do so), and “Balancing Energy Demands with Climate Goals” (more green energy rent-seekers). Oh, and there’s a panel on health care.

If that doesn’t scream that the Greens have overtaken the SGA (as they have with the other regional governors associations), I don’t know what else does. Perry should say something about it. This will be a one-sided affair otherwise.

2. Demand an independent audit of the Western Climate Initiative, as its been managed and funded under the leadership of the Western Governors Association. Something is fishy when WGA has an entire Web page dedicated to the climate change issue yet it fails to mention it runs WCI. In fact, considering the degree that environmental extremists fund and manage WGA, the group needs a thorough rectal exam. Perry could initiate that idea with his Western colleagues.

Petitions are nice, but the massive fraud behind the science of global warming and behind the rosy economics on cap-and-trade demand a more vocal advocate for electricity ratepayers and gasoline consumers. The governor of a large influential state would be helpful. Otherwise costly policy crap like what SGA and WCI are pushing will progress along and we’ll get stuck with it.

See full story with links here.

One of the striking features of the thermal history of the earth is the unusually rapid and strong warming about 55 million years ago, termed the PETM. It was recently again discussed in a paper by Zebee et al in Nature Geoscience online: 13 July 2009 | doi:10.1038/ngeo578.

The paper brought great joy and jubilation to both climate skeptics and climate alarmists. Skeptics latched on to the authors’ statement that GH models could not explain the rapid temperature rise in relation to the observed rise of CO2. Alarmists, on the other hand, warned that such rapid and strong temperature excursions might even be possible today unless we restrain CO2 emissions.

Of course, it is difficult to be certain about the direction of cause-effect from a correlation of temperature and CO2, since the data lack adequate time resolution. It might therefore be appropriate to develop a different hypothesis, which happens to make use of two papers I already published (in 1971 and 1988). Many authors seem to accept that the cause of the temperature rise was the rapid release of methane trapped in clathrates in ocean sediments, which then was oxidized to CO2. The problem with this simple idea is there may not be sufficient oxygen, particularly in the deep ocean, to accomplish this chemical transformation. This will be particularly true if large bursts of methane are released in bubbles that travel rapidly to the sea surface.

Once in the atmosphere, methane released in these large quantities could survive for a long time, simply by depleting the available hydroxyl (OH) radicals, which exist only in minute concentrations in the steady state. As a consequence, not only would this methane exert a strong GH effect, but large amounts of
methane could percolate into the stratosphere, and there be photolyzed by solar ultraviolet radiation to eventually form both water vapor and CO2, and contribute to destruction of ozone ("Stratospheric Water Vapour Increase Due to Human Activities.” Nature 233:543-547. 1971).

These large amounts of water vapor released into the normally dry stratosphere can lead to important consequences, including the formation of cirrus clouds (consisting of ice particles) in the vicinity of the cold tropopause. Tabulated physical measurements give us the ‘complex refractive index’ of water and ice. Therefore, a direct calculation based on Mie theory can provide the optical properties of the cirrus cloud cover ("Re-Analysis of the Nuclear Winter Phenomenon.” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 38:228-239. 1988).

If the cloud cover is very thick, it could exhibit an appreciable optical albedo. But my analysis shows that as the cloud thins, it retains a large infrared opacity, sufficient to cut off any thermal radiation from the earth’s surface in the IR window of the atmosphere (8-12 microns). Such a GH effect is quite powerful for warming the global climate; it depends, of course, also on the areal coverage of the cirrus cloud. It might be strong enough to enhance the warming of the earth and therefore accelerate a further release of methane from the ocean, a kind of positive feedback that could explain the observed large temperature increase.

But so far all of this is simply hypothesis and speculation. Some obvious questions remain:

* How to test this hypothesis? One would expect to find some evidence concerning anoxic effects in the ocean, including a die-off of marine organisms. The CO2 increase observed could partly be caused by a degassing of a warming ocean.

* And could such an effect happen now? Not likely. We have to remember that temperatures near the P-E boundary had been unusually high for long periods of time. In fact, the earth was completely ice-free, including also the polar regions. This is quite different from the present situation. Further, nothing of the sort has happened during the much warmer (compared to today) Holocene Temperature Optimum, 8000-5000 years ago.

The latest Scientific Alliance Newsletter story “Time for a New Paradigm for Climate Change” notes “Henrik Svensmark and colleagues from the Danish National Space Centre have published a paper in the same journal which gives support for the hypothesis that cosmic rays, modulated by the solar wind, can indeed alter the degree of cloud cover and hence affect temperature (Svensmark et al; Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds; Geophysical Research Letters; Vol 36, L15101, doi:10.1029/2009GL038429, 2009). Their measurements indicate that cloud cover measured over oceans decreases to a minimum approximately a week after cosmic ray minima. The effect can take large quantities of liquid water out of the atmosphere. This hypothesis may or may not be right, but it remains a working possibility and should certainly not be dismissed lightly.”

The following older post describes this process:

COPENHAGEN (AFP)—The earth’s climate has been significantly affected by the planet’s magnetic field, according to a Danish study that could challenge the notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming. “Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of the earth’s magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics,” one of the two Danish geophysicists behind the study, Mads Faurschou Knudsen of the geology department at Aarhus University in western Denmark, told the Videnskab journal.

See larger image here.

He and his colleague Peter Riisager, of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), compared a reconstruction of the prehistoric magnetic field 5,000 years ago based on data drawn from stalagmites and stalactites found in China and Oman. The results of the study, which has also been published in US scientific journal Geology, lend support to a controversial theory published a decade ago by Danish astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark, who claimed the climate was highly influenced by galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particles penetrating the earth’s atmosphere.

Svensmark’s theory, which pitted him against today’s mainstream theorists who claim carbon dioxide (CO2) is responsible for global warming, involved a link between the earth’s magnetic field and climate, since that field helps regulate the number of GCR particles that reach the earth’s atmosphere.

“The only way we can explain the (geomagnetic-climate) connection is through the exact same physical mechanisms that were present in Henrik Svensmark’s theory,” Knudsen said. “If changes in the magnetic field, which occur independently of the earth’s climate, can be linked to changes in precipitation, then it can only be explained through the magnetic field’s blocking of the cosmetic rays,” he said

See larger image here.

Svensmark’s Theory Explained

Man-made climate change may be happening at a far slower rate than has been claimed, according to controversial new research. Scientists say that cosmic rays from outer space play a far greater role in changing the Earth’s climate than global warming experts previously thought. In a book, to be published this week, they claim that fluctuations in the number of cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere directly alter the amount of cloud covering the planet.

High levels of cloud cover blankets the Earth and reflects radiated heat from the Sun back out into space, causing the planet to cool.

Henrik Svensmark, a weather scientist at the Danish National Space Centre who led the team behind the research, believes that the planet is experiencing a natural period of low cloud cover due to fewer cosmic rays entering the atmosphere. This, he says, is responsible for much of the global warming we are experiencing. He claims carbon dioxide emissions due to human activity are having a smaller impact on climate change than scientists think. If he is correct, it could mean that mankind has more time to reduce our effect on the climate.

See larger image here.

Read more here.

Henrik Svensmark Book “The Chilling Stars” is available here.

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (July 28, 2009) - Nights are getting hotter in Nairobi (photo) and other inland cities as growing populations change sensitive local weather patterns, according to research at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Night time low temperatures over cities and towns in Kenya and Northern Tanzania climbed 0.56 C (about one degree Fahrenheit) over the past 35 years while daytime high temperatures were stable, says Dr. John Christy, director of UA Huntsville’s Earth System Science Center and a former teacher at a Baptist high school in Kenya.

“That’s a clear signal that human development is changing temperatures at the surface by changing the natural surface,” Christy said. “If this change was caused by increases in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide you would expect to see both day and night time temperatures rising.”

Results of this research were published in June by the American Meteorological Society’s “Journal of Climate.” Population growth and its associated development warm air near the surface at night by disrupting the formation of a cool, shallow layer of air that often collects near the ground after sundown while warmer air is suspended above it.

Development and population growth do at least three things to disrupt the boundary layer and bring warmer air down to the surface:

- Buildings increase the surface “roughness,” which increases turbulence in surface breezes;

- Asphalt and concrete absorb more solar radiation than the natural landscape. They release that energy as heat after sunset (something they do more efficiently than soil and plant cover). This heat warms the air near the surface, delaying or preventing the cool boundary layer from forming.

- Small particles (called aerosols) in exhaust from cars and trucks as well as smoke from cooking and heating fires may trap heat rising from the surface that otherwise would radiate into space. This is similar to the warming caused by low-lying night clouds.

“You aren’t really adding any heat to the environment, you’re just mixing heat that was already there down through the boundary layer to the surface,” said study co-author Dick McNider, professor emeritus at UAHuntsville. “Every time the shallow boundary layer breaks up, the surface temperature goes up three, four, five degrees or more. If that happens several times during the year, it is going to show up as a warming trend. It is going to look like heat is being added to the system.”

That regional surface warming trend is exactly what is seen in the major surface datasets, which collect data from a small number of automated thermometers in Nairobi and a few other urban areas in East Africa. By comparison, Christy looked at data from 111 places in which weather data was recorded as far back as 1904. These include former British coffee and tea plantations, and town weather stations operated by railroads, planters and British colonial officials.

“We see the greatest warming in the past 50 years,” Christy said. “That’s when you see the nighttime trend start upward. That’s when the population boomed. Just since I was there in 1973 to 1975 the population has jumped from 14 million to about 38 million people.

“When I taught in Nyeri, it was a town of about 10,000 people with dirt (or mud) streets leading down to the market. Now it’s a city of about 100,000 people. It’s easy to see how the local thermometer would be influenced by that growth. “When you drive into those cities at night you just see a pall of smoke,” Christy said. “Much of the tropical, less-developed world is going to have this meteorological feature, so any indication of a warming climate is going to be influenced by population growth and nighttime minimum temperatures.”

Because of that and other problems discovered in a 2006 study of temperature trends in Central California, Christy says the most accurate way to measure
climate trends at the surface is to measure only daytime maximum temperatures. During most days convection from daytime heating has always mixed air from the surface with air in the troposphere and vice versa, so daytime surface readings have always measured temperatures in a larger portion of the atmosphere.

Christy also looked at upper atmosphere temperature data collected by satellites and by thermometers carried aloft by balloons launched from Nairobi. Neither shows a warming trend over East Africa. Christy led the study with help from UA Huntsville colleagues McNider and William Norris.

EDITORS: A pdf file of the “Journal of Climate” paper referenced above is available. Please e-mail your request to Phillip Gentry at gentryp@uah.edu.

See Icecap’s EPA comment on the Urban Heat Island, which is not adjusted for in the global data bases used by NOAA and Hadley.